Beanball, Prospects, Value, and Lamb

Head over to iTunes to check out the latest podcast: "Beanball, Prospects, Value, and Lamb"

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/balls-in-the-dirt/id865902518?mt=2

Thanks for listening, please be sure to rate, review, and subscribe!

-Hayden

Trade Deadline Podcast Pt. 1

Available on iTunes is our latest podcast, about potential trades we think make sense. Things get silly and we get rid of Aaron Hill!

Enjoy and please don't forget to rate, review, and subscribe on iTunes!

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/balls-in-the-dirt/id865902518?mt=2

-Hayden

Podcast: The Draft, Goodbye Cahill, Machado, and Rookies

Go to iTunes and check out our newest edition of the podcast!

"The D-Backs Draft & Machado"
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/balls-in-the-dirt/id865902518?mt=2

The guys discuss the newest members of the Arizona Diamondbacks following the 2014 Draft, Trevor Cahill's recent demotion, Manny Machado's recent tantrums, and the rookie class of 2014.

As always, thanks for listening and downloading. Please rate and review our podcast on iTunes and don't forget to email us at ballsinthedirtpodcast@gmail.com

Thanks,
Hayden

New D-Backs Podcast!

6/2/14

Check out the link below to download our newest podcast on our beloved (and last place) Diamondbacks.

"Some Predicting":
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/balls-in-the-dirt/id865902518?mt=2

Hayden & Nick discuss the possibility of Kirk Gibson and Kevin Towers being fired and whether or not that should happen now! As in TODAY! Other discussions include trade bait on the current roster and what prospects are doing well (and some that aren't). Hayden inevitably talks about Archie Bradley.

Thanks for listening!
Hayden

"The Really Abrasive Episode" on iTunes

Hey boys and girls,

New episode up at iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/balls-in-the-dirt/id865902518?mt=2

Please remember to rate and review us, and while you're at it please subscribe.

As always, our email is ballsinthedirtpodcast@gmail.com.

Thanks for listening,
Hayden

iTunes Update!

Good afternoon boys and girls. We've got some updating to fill you in on.

We are now on iTunes! All you have to do is go into iTunes and type in "Balls in the Dirt" and under podcasts, you will find us! We have our first episode up now called "Early Season Blues" which was recorded on April 9th. Or if you want the link will be posted here:

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/balls-in-the-dirt/id865902518

If you would do us the favor of subscribing, review, and rating us that'd be great. Remember, any and all feedback is welcomed at  our new email which is ballsinthedirtpodcast@gmail.com!

Thanks for being so patient with us as we go through some transition with this operation.

Content is on the way!

-Hayden

Nick and Hayden's 2014 MLB Preview: 6. Detroit Tigers

6. Detroit Tigers
by Nick Opich4/2/2014

To really examine the make up of the 2014 Detroit Tigers, you have to look back at the circumstances that brought them to this point. After a disappointing ass whooping at the hands of the Texas Rangers in the 2011 ALCS, owner Mike Illitch and General Manager Dave Dombrowski knew they had a good team and were content to begin 2012 with relatively the same team. Then Victor Martinez tore his ACL during an offseason workout, the club panicked and signed slugging first baseman Prince Fielder to a 9-year, $214M contract. All was right in the world.

The Tigers were now easy favorites in 2012 to reach and win the coveted World Series. Although they didn’t dominate during the regular season, they reached the World Series and were matched up against the San Francisco Giants and were quickly swept, giving Detroit another embarrassing showing in the playoffs and their second World Series defeat of the decade.

In 2013, the Tigers were once again the odds-on favorite to win the championship. With Martinez returning the lineup, Detroit had arguably the most imposing middle of the order in the game. Add on the fact that they had a rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister, and Rick Porcello and it was assumed by many that this team was the best in baseball. But you know what they say about when you assume something…

Detroit won the division by one game over the upstart Cleveland Indians and limped into the playoffs after being no-hit in the final game of the regular season. They were nearly knocked out by Oakland in the ALDS until Jhonny Peralta (fresh off his return from a PED suspension) hit a series changing double. They moved onto the next round against Boston and lost in six games to the Red Sox.

This will never be forgotten

It was clear that the dynamic of this team needed to change and you would be hard pressed to find any team that changed their make up more this offseason than the Detroit Tigers.

First, Manager Jim Leyland retired and was replaced by the younger and more analytically-inclined Brad Ausmus - a move many Tigers fans applauded. Then Prince Fielder and $30M was traded to Texas in exchange for 2B Ian Kinsler. Miguel Cabrera was to move back to first base and hot shot rookie Nick Castellanos was going to be brought up to play third. Another solid move by the savvy, Dombrowski.

Then things got weird… 

First, reliever Jose Veras, who was acquired at the trade deadline from Houston for young OF prospect Danry Vasquez, was cut because Detroit didn’t want to pay his $4M salary for 2014. An odd move considering the weakness of the Tigers bullpen but he wasn’t as reliable as many expected and so maybe this was the right move.

Then, on December 2^nd, 2013, a day that will live in infamy, The Tigers traded Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals for Double-A pitcher Robbie Ray, left-handed reliever (and homophobe) Ian Krol, and utility man Steve Lombardozzi. This sent shockwaves across Detroit and the rest of Major League Baseball. Did Dombrowski really trade a top-10 pitcher for a mid-tier prospect and spare parts? Isn’t this team set up to win now? There’s got to be something else going back to Detroit, right?

Yes, he did. Yes, the team wants to win now. No, they did not receive anything else from this trade.

Later that week, Detroit signed closer Joe Nathan but hardly anyone was excited. The damage had already been done.

They later signed OF Rajai Davis instead of the bigger name on the market Shin-Soo Choo and RHP Joba Chamberlain to a one year deal worth $6M bringing up many questions about why they cut Veras.

Who's really making these decisions?

Despite these strange moves, entering Spring Training, there was still plenty of optimism for Detroit.

Then, only a couple weeks before the season was to begin, it is reported that defensive whiz Jose Iglesias will likely miss the season with two fractured shins. A few days later, flame throwing reliever Bruce Rondon goes down with a torn UCL and it is announced that he will miss the season after receiving Tommy John surgery.

Tiger fans just wanted the season to begin before anything else weird and horrific could happen.

To replace Iglesias the Tigers acquired a platoon of Andrew Romine and Alex Gonzalez. One of the trades included sending Lombardozzi to Baltimore, making the Fister deal look even more dismal.

Finally the season has begun for Detroit and the outlook is still optimistic. Castellanos looked great this spring and Ausmus has shown so far that he is going to employ a more analytically inclined philosophy than that of the somewhat stubborn Leyland.

This team is in your hands now Brad

Objectively looking at this team, they have an array of players who are experienced and know how to win. In 2014, the Tigers could win anywhere from 88-95+ games and at the very least, run away with the AL Central crown.  

1. Last Season and Offseason
      a. 93-69 (Lost in ALCS to BOS)
      b. Signed Joe Nathan, Rajai Davis, Joba Chamberlain
      c. Traded Jose Alvarez to LAA for SS Andrew Romine
      d. Traded Doug Fister to WAS for LHP Ian Krohl, 2B Steve Lombardozzi
      e. Then trading Lombardozzi to BAL for SS Alex Gonzalez
       f. Traded Prince Fielder and cash to TEX for 2B Ian Kinsler

2. Lineup/Rotation
Lineup:
      1. Ian Kinsler 2B
      2. Torii Hunter RF
      3. Miguel Cabrera 1B
      4. Victor Martinez DH
      5. Austin Jackson CF
      6. Alex Avila C
      7. Nick Castellanos 3B
      8. Alex Gonzalez SS
      9. Rajai Davis LF
Rotation:
      1. Justin Verlander
      2. Max Scherzer
      3. Anibal Sanchez
      4. Rick Porcello
      5. Drew Smyly

3. Favorite/Least Favorite
      a. Nick's Favorite– Brad Ausmus
      b. Hayden's Favorite– Verlander’s conservation. Saves himself and his velocity.
      c. Nick's Least Favorite – Waste of roster spots
      d. Hayden's Least Favorite – Cabrera’s inevitable weight gain; Fister trade; Farm system

4. Impact Player
      a. Ian Kinsler
               i. Career lows in walks – 2012 & 2013 (12% to 8% drop)
              ii. Slugged .511 in Arlington; .399 everywhere else
             iii. Has hit .200 in Comerica
             iv. Age 29: Isolated power of .223; Age 31: I.P. of .136 (last 3 years: .223,.166,.136)
              v. But Michael Young was a better player from 32-34 than 29-31
      b. Rick Porcello
               i. Reaching 200+ innings – never done
              ii. Must be elite
             iii. Can he be Fister reincarnated?

5. Impact Prospect
      a. Nick Castellanos
               i. Oppo-field power
              ii. One of best pure hitters among prospects
             iii. Low expectations outside of hitting

6. Midseason Status
      a. Contending as usual for first in AL Central
      b. SS or LF as biggest hole?

7. Bold Predictions
      a. 93-69
      b. No significant trade
      c. Castellanos: AL ROY


Podcast Playlist:
"Are You on Your Way" - Middle Class Rut
"Trampled Underfoot" - Led Zeppelin

Nick & Hayden's 2014 MLB Preview: 7. Texas Rangers

7. Texas Rangers

by Hayden Hughes

With what began with so much promise in the offseason has ended Spring Training with more question marks and ill-timed injuries. The Texas Rangers seemed poised and ready to begin the Jurickson Profar-era of the franchise along with the reliable ace Yu Darvish. And while Darvish will miss may two starts at most, Profar will miss nearly half of 2014 with a muscle tear in his throwing shoulder. Further adding to question the legitamacy of Texas' chances at winning in 2014, Geovany Soto will miss the same amount of time. These injuries have led to the emergency signings of Joe Saunders, Chris Gimenez, Donnie Murphy, and Tommy Hanson - the latter has already hit the pool of free agency again. With question marks surrounding starter Matt Harrison's back, starting pitching depth has become a huge issue for the Rangers.

Despite being 0 for 2 with converting relief pitchers into formidable starters (see: Feliz, Neftali and Ogando, Alexi), Texas has taken chances with both Tanner Scheppers and Robbie Ross, as both will get their chances in the rotation in 2014. Of course, even if one or both Scheppers and Ross work out, this move depletes the Rangers' bullpen. Making matters worse, Feliz's performance coming off his 2012 Tommy John Surgery has earned him a demotion to Triple-A. 

So the offense has to hit - a problem with the 2013 Rangers' roster. In a blockbuster with Detroit just before the winter meetings, Texas landed Prince Fielder and a month later shelled out the cash to sign outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. Choo's presence bring a legitimate lead off hitter who drew over 110 walks in 2013, something Rangers fans haven't had in the previous two seasons. Fielder has arrived to Texas in the best shape of his life - and noticeably, not in the stereotypical sense, so - and has had an uplifting spring for the Rangers, and should hit well in the third spot of Ron Washington's lineup. Further development in Leonys Martin and consistency out of shortstop Elvis Andrus will be imperative if the hobbled Rangers intend to compete at all in 2014. However, stability at the corners between Fielder and Adrian Beltre should provide some relief past all the stress of the lineup in spots 5-9. Defensively, thankfully, Martin, Choo, Beltre, and Rios will be bright spots in the field.

A power-hitting lefty bat is something the Rangers needed.

Acquiring J.P. Arencibia seemed like a smart move in an attempt to rejuvenate the backstop's career, but as the starter, Arencibia's bat and defense both could prove to be hindering. Soto was brought back to the Rangers, after splitting time last year with A.J. Pierzynski, at the request of Yu Darvish. Arencibia is not the defensive presence that Soto is, and Arencibia is coming off a forgettable couple of seasons. And now Arencibia is the starting catcher. Hopefully the catcher takes after Soto and sees more pitches, draws more walks, and makes more solid contact.

Newly-extended Martin Perez is on a team-friendly deal and will be asked to start 30+ games and most likely 170+ innings at age 23 which is potentially a recipe for disaster in the long term (see: Corbin, Patrick).

But if Joe Saunders can shake an awful spring and Darvish and Harrison can be themselves and just stay healthy, the Rangers' rotation goes from 'the worst' to 'average' pretty quickly. Otherwise, I would expect some midseason trades to occur, involving Mitch Moreland, Alex Rios, and potentially some of Texas' highly-touted prospects such as Joey Gallo, Luis Sardinas, or Jorge Alfaro. It all depends on if and how far out the Rangers are a third of the way through the season.

An optimist's outlook on the Rangers would advise fans to look at the season as a glass half-full. The first half of the season will be painful, but staying in contention will be important as but July the Rangers will have regained the presence of Derek Holland, Profar, and Soto. Each game counts the same, but the second half of the season should prove to be easier on the eyes as the Rangers get three fresh players during the dog days of the season.

But a realist's outlook may predict another August collapse and another September push for the playoffs resulting in a new manager for the 2015 Texas Rangers. Any guesses? I'll give you a hint...he's on the Texas staff already...*see bottom of the following rundown for the answer*

Let's just hope Fielder can resist the
vast amount of Dallas-Fort Worth BBQ options.

1. Last Season and Offseason
      a. 91-72 (missed PO’s)
      b. Signed J.P. Arencibia, Shin-Soo Choo, Shawn Tolleson, Donnie Murphy, Joe Saunders, Chris Gimenez, Seth           Rosin
      c. Traded Ian Kinsler to DET for 1B Prine Fielder and cash
      d. Traded Craig Gentry and RHP Josh Lindblom to OAK for OF Michael Choice

2. Lineup/Rotation
Lineup:
      1. Shin-Soo Choo LF
      2. Elvis Andrus SS
      3. Prince Fielder 1B
      4. Adrian Beltre 3B
      5. Alex Rios RF
      6. Michael Choice/Mitch Moreland DH
      7. J.P. Arencibia/Geovany Soto C
      8. Leonys Martin CF
      9. Donnie Murphy/Josh Wilson 2B
Rotation:
      1. Yu Darvish
      2. Tanner Scheppers
      3. Martin Perez
      4. Robbie Ross
      5. Matt Harrison
      6. Joe Saunders

3. Favorite/Least Favorite
      a. Hayden's Favorite– Fielder trade; Perez extension
      b. Nick's Favorite– Future of infield
      c. Hayden's Least Favorite – Injuries; Back end of rotation
      d. Nick's Least Favorite – Prince Fielder trade

4. Impact Player
      a. Perez
            i. With Perez earning a contact extension, his presence in a depleted rotation will be crucial.


5. Impact Prospect
      a. Michael Choice
           i. Young, Five tool.
          ii. Great Spring Training, Hometown kid
         iii. Needs to be comfortable in a platoon role with Moreland for time being.

6. Midseason Status
      a. In contention for first place with OAK and perhaps SEA or ANA.
      b. Potentially looking for starting C or depth at C
      c. Still looking to deal Moreland

7. Bold Predictions
      a. 86-76
      b. Ron Washington is gone.
      c. Trade RHP Nick Tepesch, RHP Wilmer Font, RHP Alec Asher, RHP Cory Burns to CHC for RHP Jeff                       Samardzija. - fangraphs
      d. Trade 2B Rougned Odor, RHP Wilmer Font, and OF Nick Williams to CIN for RHP Mat Latos

Meet Tim Bogar.
Texas Rangers Bench Coach and bad omen for Ron Washington.

Podcast Playlist:
"Been a Son" by Nirvana
"Back Down South" by Kings of Leon

Minor Move for the D-Backs at a Big Cost

by Hayden Hughes
3/31/14

With Opening Day finally here, I've found that I posses a little bit of pessimism for 2014 and the Diamondbacks. I know trades don't typically happen on such a joyous day like Opening Day, but if I were the Diamondbacks, I'm not so sure I wouldn't be working the phones. It is my opinion that this team has misjudged it's priorities while ineffectively filling less-imperative voids (all while getting little return). One void that I believe needs to be filled is the role of backup catcher.

Yes, backup catchers are not the heartbeat to a ball club and usually catch no more than 20 or 30 games barring injury. But with what the Diamondbacks have at the catching position, I can't say I'm impressed and I think the following option could eventually be a building block towards the future that also helps the team in the immediate.

News is coming down this afternoon that Henry Blanco has decided to retire (although there seems to be some question about this) and will become a part of the Diamondbacks' coaching staff. This leaves 30-year-old Tuffy Gosewisch as essentially the D-Backs lone option to back up current catching incumbent Miguel Montero.

Montero, also 30, is coming off a forgettable 2013 season and seems to have gotten his swing back after a solid Spring Training - if looking into that is your thing - but I'm not convinced the Diamondbacks are handling Montero's struggles appropriately.

Manager Kirk Gibson, as recently as earlier today, has defended Montero and claimed that he could hit in the five spot of the lineup, ahead of Mark Trumbo, in the event that a right-handed starter is facing the Snakes. I'm not in favor of a lineup that has Montero batting higher than sixth unless some injuries have occurred. He's a good baseball player and team captain, but right now he's essentially still in a funk. My biggest fear is that the Diamondbacks are looking at what's down the road in terms of what they owe "Miggy." He's under contract through 2017, when he will be 33 years old. In 2014 he'll make $10M, $12M in 2015, an $14M in 2016 and 2017. I understand they aren't going to bench Montero with this type of investment attached to him, and given another awful season in 2014 Montero will be essentially immovable. But in the immediate I think you have to get a catcher to back up Montero that is young enough to be considered his successor or even replacement, but maybe doesn't have the flashy name of, say, Gary Sanchez of the Yankees. Here's my proposal:

The Diamondbacks approach the Reds about a trade in which Cincinnati will receive J.J. Putz in exchange for catcher Tucker Barnhart. It's a head-scratcher on the surface, but let me explain.

Putz's role had been demoted to setup man with the arrival of Addison Reed, and with the loss of David Hernandez Putz is all the more valuable to the Diamondbacks. However, the Diamondbacks have relief pitchers in their farm system who are younger, cheaper, and ready to pitch in the big leagues. At this point in J.J.'s career, I'm not so sure some of these pitchers would be better than Putz.

Putz has been solid for the Diamondbacks, posting a 2.45 ERA in the last
three seasons with a 10.1 K/9.

23-year-old Matt Stites, who came over from San Diego at last year's trade deadline, apparently is now the bright spot in the return Kevin Towers received for Ian Kennedy, and this year is his estimated time of arrival. Not far behind Stites is 22-year-old ASU product Jake Barrett who will also see some time in the big leagues this season. And finally, after an impressive Spring Training, Bo Schultz seems finally ready to see some time in a Diamondback uniform at age 28.

And finally, before getting to Barnhart, we should acknowledge that the need for Putz in Cincinnati isn't particularly random. Hard-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman went to the DL at the end of Spring after being hit by a gruesome comebacker hit by Salvador Perez. Also on the DL are veterans Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton. Marshall had shoulder inflammation, so one would assume the Reds won't rush the lefty back into action. Broxton had surgery on his elbow on March 22nd, and is coming off a 2013 in which he pitched in only 30.2 innings. To me, Putz isn't a young replacement for these question marks, but he's a short-term replacement as he will hit free agency after this season.

Now for the Diamondbacks' return. Tucker Barnhart, as I mentioned, isn't a household name. But the switch-hitter is 24 years old and has been praised for his make up and leadership skills that will elongate his career for years to come. You know, that lingo when he doesn't do much offensively. Barnhart, while he is never going to hit 15 or 20 homers, could still put up a better slash line than .178/.174/.222. You know who did that in 47 plate appearances last year?

Barnhart was a tenth-round draft pick by the Reds in 2009

Tuffy Gosewisch, who of his eight hits, only two of them weren't singles. They were doubles.

So Barnhart's limited power really doesn't matter in comparison. He's 24, can hit to all fields, is a stronger left-handed hitter than he is right-handed, and is great defensively. Barnhart threw out more than 40% of basestealers in his minor league career.

Because Putz will make $7M in 2014, my assumption is the Diamondbacks could shed all of what he is owed because they get little in return - in typical Kevin Towers-fashion. Putz has been reliable in the closer's role as well as a setup man. His only obstacle in 2013 was staying healthy, so in asking Cincinnati for a tenth-round draft pick to back up Miguel Montero could arguably be selling low on Putz. But I just get the feeling if the Diamondbacks ask for anything else from the Reds, they end up having to eat a little of Putz's owed salary. Just me assuming things though.

Cabrera's Extension is the New Standard for Bad Contracts

by Hayden Hughes
3/30/14

The Detroit Tigers extended their star player, Miguel Cabrera, to an eight-year extension on Friday. Cabrera, who was due $44M between 2014 and 2015 before hitting what would have been his free agency, will now earn approximately $248M over the next eight years, keeping him in Detroit until he is 40 years old in 2023. Total, the Tigers will pay Cabrera $292M over the next ten years. However, Cabrera’s good news does not end there.

There are vesting options in Cabrera new contract that, if all are met, the 2-time MVP would earn $352M over the next twelve years.

Cabrera will turn 31 this April.

Had Detroit not signed Cabrera to this extension and he played out 2015 and sequentially hit free agency, the Tigers would have paid Cabrera $152.3M from 2008 – 2015, Cabrera’s age 25-32 seasons.

Why there has been criticism from the media over this contract is not the $29.2M annual payday that Cabrera will receive for the next ten seasons. The criticism is over the $31M that Cabrera will earn over the course of the new extension alone – which he can safely assume will be Cabrera’s decline.

Personally, I’m of the belief that baseball has to be smarter than this and learn from other club’s mistakes.

Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols both signed contracts that owners, writers, and baseball fans cringe at thinking about and that fellow players and agents dream of. We’ve all heard the phrase, “Well it’s not the A-Rod deal” when attempting to justify a questionable move made by a GM or team. Tigers fans can no longer use this phrase. Rodriguez’s deal pays him – excluding the 2014 suspension – over $25M annually. Albert Pujols’ contract pays him $24M annually. Again, Cabrera will now make more annually over the next ten years, as well as over the course of the extension alone (years 2016-2023).

Essentially, Detroit is paying Cabrera for what he will have already done. Not what he will be able to do for eight years.

Even for the sake of argument, let’s compare Cabrera to another player.

The following is a look at the previous six seasons of Miguel Cabrera’s career, ages 25-30, and how it compares to another unidentified player. We’ll call this player “Player X.” The fun part is that, unless you look this information up as you are reading, which one is Miggy and which one is Player X will be unknown to you. Now, if you want to ruin the surprise you can do so and just scroll down, but otherwise you should keep the portion of the page you are currently reading near the bottom.

The following is the age 25-30 seasons of Miguel Cabrera’s and Player X’s Slugging Percentages.

So, as you can see, the blue line has remained on a linear upswing over the course of his age-25 through his age-30 seasons. The only season in which this player declined was his age 28-season, which followed a solid increase experienced in the season prior. By age 30, this player had topped that mark with a SLG% of .636.

Meanwhile, the red line experiences a little more fluctuation but is consistently slugging at a higher rate. Although, this players' age-27 season was his worst between the age of 25 and 30. This player did manage a dramatic increase the next year, but never topped the .671 SLG% he posted at 26 years old.

Next, is OPS, which obviously takes into account a player's slugging as well as their ability to get on base. This is perhaps the best metric for telling whether a player is just a slugger or an actual hitter.

Here we see that the red line is consistently a better overall hitter, with the exception of ages 27 and 30. As we've established, the age of 27 was not the best year for the red line, but when you take into account the differences between their two players' SLG% and then their OPS, you can tell that the player represented by the red line actually took a lot of walks in a season in which he struggled to hit for power, relatively speaking. Point being, both players are consistently close, and in the years when the blue line surpassed the red line, it was by a really small margin.

The biggest differences is the player represented by the red line was a much better overall hitter at the ages of 25 and 26. That's like the difference in a 2009 Jayson Werth and a 1997 Barry Bonds. Both got MVP votes but...you'd take Bonds.

Next, let's look at WAR (or Wins Above Replacement)

Again, here we see the difference. From an early age the player represented by the red line was well established and putting up MVP caliber seasons. The player represented by the blue line has a far more impressive jump from age 25 to 26, but still never touches an 8 WAR. And, most importantly, by age 30 both players posted WARs of 7.5.

Okay, for the most part you've made it past the graphs and now I hope you're ready to be (less than) shocked, because the "Player X" is....

None other than....

....

Albert Pujols.

Now the real question is which player was the red line and which player was represented by the blue line.

And I'm sure I fooled you and masked any bias well enough that you could not pick up that Miguel Cabrera was represented by the blue line and Pujols was the red.

Now before further fighting against Miguel Cabrera, let's look at Pujols since age 30. In order to maintain a linear plot of how Pujols has regressed since then, we'll keep the same time frame of six years - ages 28 – 33. First, here's Pujols' Slugging Percentage over that time frame:

So there's obviously a dramatic fall once Pujols hit 30 years old. And with regard to this and all following graphs, Pujols only played in 99 games in 2013 due to injury, so the decline looks much worse than it is. We can probably safely say his 2014 will not be as bad as his 2013, but I'd be surprised if a 34-year-old Pujols could hit even close to as well as he did at age 30.

Now with regard to Cabrera, here's why I chose Pujols to compare him to:

• Both have now been handed jaw-dropping contracts that have faced scrutiny.
• These are two very similar players.
• On Cabrera's baseball-reference page, Pujols is a "similar batter at age 30."
• On Pujols' baseball-reference page, Cabrera is a similar hitter at age 27, 28, and 30.
• On both players' baseball-reference pages, similar batters include:
• Frank Robinson
• Hank Aaron
• Ken Griffey
• Mel Ott

So, it's not scientific, but I'm not a scientist. However, I am a rationalist. And if Anaheim is feeling any type of regret over the Pujols contract, Detroit will be regretting Cabrera's extension if by age 32 he is regressing like Pujols did.

Pujols has experienced more difficulty in taking walks as well. So much so that in Pujols' career, he only struck out more than he walked in 2001 (his rookie campaign), 2012, and 2013. For the record, that is one season in which Pujols struck out more times than he was walked before age 31. He was 21.

Also worth noting for Tigers fans, at age 33, Pujols' OPS steeped down into the .700's for the first time in his career. That's the age at which Cabrera's new extension kicks in (Then again, Pujols was hurt).

Now for Pujols' WAR:

This is where the injury-plagued 2013 season really hurt Pujols. The regression line that you can visualize is really alarming for the Angels in this graph. Take into account 2013, and Pujols is on pace to have a WAR of about 3.0 games. And even if referencing Baseball Prospectus, they have Pujols' at a projected WAR of 2.2. Taking out 2013, one would project Pujols at a 4- or 3-WAR clip until 2016, but bodies do break down and injuries do happen.

Is it a fair comparison? Maybe not - if you ask me, Pujols is the better player when comparing them at the same age.

But is it warranted? Duh.

Miguel Cabrera was not due to hit free agency until 2016, so my question to Dave Dombrowski would be, why now? It's not like the Tigers have a farm system that is going to bring in the next crop of Miguel Cabreras and Justin Verlanders, so locking Cabrera up is like having to build around a 38-year-old tree trunk in 2021. Detroit has a roster that is built to win now (sans their left field, shortstop, and bullpen situations). This team's window is closing. 

By the way, we have yet to see one of these monster contracts work out well at all and as it stands now, Cabrera is a Tiger for life, whether Detroit fans want him in 2020 or not.

Music Recommendation:

"They Don't Have Any Friends" by Taking Back Sunday

Nick & Hayden's 2014 MLB Preview: 8. Pittsburgh Pirates

A quiet offseason has MVP Andrew McCutchen feeling just fine about 2014.

8. Pittsburg Pirates
by Hayden Hughes


The following audio was recorded a while back:



Usually when a team has the National League MVP hitting third in their lineup they are really, really good. Andrew McCutchen has been hitting third in Pittsburgh for a while now, but only recently has that translated to success on the field and Andrew McCutchen winning his first MVP in 2013. As far as McCutchen is concerned, it's easy to argue that his 2012 campaign was stronger than his MVP season last year.

If there was just one player I want to party with...

79 wins in 2012 translated into a 20-game improvement as Pittsburgh tasted the playoffs for the first time in 20 years, and at the current rate Clint Hurdle is at, the Pirates will keep improving. And to further help matters for the Bucs, Starling Marte is now locked into a 6-year, $31M contract with two team options for 2020 and 2021. As long as Marte continues to hit at the top of the lineup, the only facet of his game that Pittsburgh fans might dread is his struggles stealing - leading the NL with 15 caught stolen bases in 2013.

The core of Pittsburgh's team is the envy of most other teams in the MLB. Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez have two more years of club-control after this season, Marte, Tabata, and McCutchen are all under contract through 2016 at least, and Jordy Mercer will not be a free agent until 2019 when he will be 32 years old. That leaves Russell Martin and Gaby Sanchez unaccounted for.

Russell Martin has found a resurgence in Pittsburgh and managed to take at least fifty walks every season, so re-upping Martin might be a wise move for Pittsburgh, as few immediate catching options seem viable in-house, although Martin is 31 so finding a replacement elsewhere would be equally as wise.

...Or don't do anything. The Pirates are fine. Andrew's body language
just tells me everything will be alright.

With Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh's top offensive prospect, ready and most likely seeing a call up soon in 2014, Jose Tabata may be the odd man out and become a valuable asset in trade discussions or becoming the National League's best fourth outfielder, unless Matt Kemp regains health anytime soon. A move of Tabata could result in the successor to Gaby Sanchez at first base, who is nothing short of...well, just kind of bland. Nothing about Sanchez's game really stands out as exceptional, making him something of a sore thumb in a lineup of 5-tooled fingers, for the most part.

Along with what I assume is a contract extension at some point for Neil Walker, Pittsburgh's lineup should be plenty potent for the next few years, giving the pitching situation for the Pirates less pressure to develop in the immediate.

I've gone this far and not mentioned the rotation that Pittsburgh has assembled. And while their three, four, or five options most likely won't compete for this seasons' Cy Young Award, Liriano repeating his 2013 season and Gerrit Cole continuing to impress would be huge for Pittsburgh. But for Liriano, repeating 2013 is an essential for the Pirates to compete in 2014, as he will be the anchor of the rotation. And anchors cannot get hurt. As far as the rotation goes, fans will most likely be anxiously awaiting the arrival of top pitching prospect Jameson Taillon, who will most likely find himself in the Major Leagues by June or July.

With their youth, and financial savvy, my thought is that Pittsburgh's window to compete for a World Series starts now and closes somewhere in the next four years, depending on the pitching's development.

Side Note: I love these jerseys.

1. Last Season and Offseason
      a. 94-68 (Lost to STL in NLDS)
      b. Signed Edinson Volquez 1 yr - $5M

2. Line Up/Rotation
Lineup:
      1. Starling Marte LF
      2. Jordy Mercer SS
      3. Andrew McCutchen CF
      4. Pedro Alvarez 3B
      5. Neil Walker 2B
      6. Russell Martin C
      7. Gaby Sanchez 1B
      8. Jose Tabata RF

Rotation:
      1. Francisco Liriano
      2. Gerrit Cole
      3. Wandy Rodriguez
      4. Charlie Morton
      5. Edinson Volquez

3. Favorite/Least Favorite
      a. Nick's Favorite – Young talent throughout organization
      b. Hayden's Favorite – “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”
      c. Nick's Least Favorite – Gaby Sanchez
      d. Hayden's Least Favorite – Rodriguez’s $13M option ($5M paid by HOU, but still…)

4. Impact Players
      a. Starling Marte
               i. Quit getting thrown out stealing
              ii. Cannot regress, take more walks
             iii. Strike out less
      b. Pedro Alvarez .
                i. Repeat 2013
               ii. Must walk more, less K’s
              iii. Maybe try not pulling everything.

5. Impact Prospect(s)
      a. Jameson Taillon
               i. With Taillon ready, be on the lookout for a Wandy Rodriguez trade
      b. Gregory Polanco
               i. With Polanco ready, be on the lookout for an interesting Jose Tabata trade
      c. Alen Hanson
               i. With Hanson close, Mercer could be dealt

6. Midseason Status
      a. First place in NL Central
      b. Shopping for an upgrade at 1B or 3B if Alvarez is open to move to 1B

7. Bold Predictions
      a. 91-71
      b. Jameson Taillon win NL ROY
      c. Trade Jose Tabata to NYM for 1B Ike Davis
      d.       Or check out Hayden's trade proposal involving Tabata.

But these jerseys are the ones that my heart truly admires. Honestly.
And that's how I know fashion is not my forte.

Podcast Playlist:
"Stood a Chance" by Taking Back Sunday
"Kong" by Austin Gibbs

Nick & Hayden's 2014 MLB Preview: 9. Oakland Athletics

This is a grown man named "Coco."
And we just accept that.
Then again, isn't there a player named Casper?

9. Oakland Athletics
by Hayden Hughes
3/12/14




If winning was a choice, I would advise the Oakland Athletics to chose to win. Right now.

For no other reason then A) if not now, when? and B) that farm system...*this is where I cringe*

The Oakland A's' formula of acquiring underrated and undervalued players from other teams is no secret anymore and, in fact, has been adopted by other teams. So at some point, doesn't Oakland have to develop their own?

Sure, the back-end of their rotation is entirely Oakland-grown prospects who have translated well into the Major Leagues, for the most part, but outside of Yeonis Cespedes, all of the A's starting lineup was drafted by another team. One thing Oakland proved this offseason, and really always have proved, is that the trade market is their bread and butter. GM Billy Beane was a little uncharacteristic in trading for the heavy-priced Jim Johnson to be 2014's closer, but a revamped bullpen will lift the weight from the the youthful starters' shoulders that they felt in the playoffs last season. Literally, Jarrod Parker's shoulder hurts, as of last month.

Fans must be on the edge of their seats waiting to see what happens to the teams' core of Donaldson, Josh Reddick, Yeonis Cespedes, and Jed Lowrie in next years' offseason. At one point, Trevor Cahill was going to be Oakland's next Tim Hudson (A.K.A. the anchor of their rotation), and where is Cahill now?

One has to believe Lowrie will hit free agency, as shortstop prospect Addison Russell will be Major League-ready by 2015. There is, however, a chance that for the right price Lowrie resigns with Oakland to man second base.

Josh Donaldson is club-controlled through 2018, but if the third baseman finds himself in the top 4 of the MVP voting again, Oakland might be wise to commit to the 28-year-old. But then again, he is already 28 and still not arbitration eligible until next year, so Oakland will for sure have Donaldson for his peak years, so the smart thing may be to actually let him walk in 2018. But for now, he's fastened for the long haul.

For Josh Reddick to gain any leverage in any potential extension negotiations, he'll have to put 2013 behind him and regain the form of himself that garnered comparisons to Alex Gordon - not the form of himself that is being compared to Logan Morrison. Reddick, who has two more years of club control, might be the "make-or-break" player that puts this team over the hump in their 2014 playoff run.

Then there's Cespedes, Oakland's middle-of-the-lineup left fielder. The five-tooled Cuban had a disappointing 2013 that was riddled with injuries. It was reported that Oakland was shopping Cespedes and even got in discussion with Arizona about a Tyler Skaggs-trade, but Oakland backed out. Now Skaggs, in Anaheim, will most likely see Cespedes for a couple at-bats at least. Oakland retaining Cespedes might have been a really smart move, as a great 2014 - which isn't far-fetched - would increase Cespedes' trade value as more than just the Home Run Derby champion.

Pitch recognition is a rumor for Cespedes.

Seriously. Is that swing more from the school of
Vladimir Guerrero or the school of Adrian Beltre?

Oakland has the potential to have either the best offensive outfield in the AL West (maybe the entire American League), or potentially the most disappointing, as face-of-the-franchise Coco Crisp is the most consistent of himself, Cespedes, and Reddick. As long as Crisp gets his games in at DH, he'll be in the lineup for over 150 games, but the center fielder has seen dips in his stolen base numbers. One good sign is the 22 home runs Crisp belted in 2013, but one wouldn't rely on those being much more than an anomaly. It'll take more than Crisp's consistency and Donaldson repeating 2013 for this lineup to win Oakland a championship, but out of all the "dark horse" teams, I think this is the one with the best chance and why they are ranked so high.

Side note: ...I'm not too sure I'm brave/man enough to arrive at Yeonis' family gatherings.

1.      Last Season and Offseason

a.       96-66 (Lost to DET in ALDS)

b.      Signed Eric O’Flaherty (DL-TJ surgery), Scott Kazmir, Nick Punto

c.       Traded Jemile Weeks to BAL for RHP Jim Johnson

d.      Traded OF Michael Choice to TEX for OF Craig Gentry and RHP Josh Lindblom

e.       Traded OF Seth Smith to SD for RHP Luke Gregerson

f.       Traded LHP Brett Anderson to COL for LHP Drew Pomeranz

g.      Traded LHP Jeremy Blevins to WAS for Billy Burns

2.      Line Up/Rotation

a.       Coco Crisp CF

b.      Josh Donaldson 3B

c.       Jed Lowrie SS

d.      Yoenis Cespedes LF

e.       Brandon Moss 1B

f.       Josh Reddick RF

g.      Eric Sogard/Alberto Callaspo 2B

h.      John Jaso DH

i.        Derek Norris C

j.        Jarrod Parker

k.      Scott Kazmir

l.        Sonny Gray

m.    Dan Straily

n.      A.J. Griffin

3.      Favorite/Least Favorite

a.       Hayden's Favorite – Kazmir signing

b.      Nick's Favorite – Crisp Extension

c.      Hayden's Least Favorite – Between Jaso, Norris, and Vogt, someone has to go to attain young DH

d.      Nick's Least Favorite – Too Young of a Rotation

4.      Impact Player

a.       Josh Reddick

                                                              i.      Needs to stay healthy and return to 2012 form, but less K’s

                                                            ii.      OBP stayed the same in a bad 2013

                                                          iii.      A Good Reddick on a Good A’s team could mean ALCS

5.      Impact Prospect

a.       Maybe Addison Russell makes a September call up, moving Lowrie to 2^nd. But outside of that, it’s unlikely the A’s will get much help from a Top Prospect in 2014.

                                                              i.      The "next Miguel Tejada"

6.      Midseason Status

a.       Trading punches with SEA and TEX for the AL West, hanging in there

b.      Potentially looking to add a seasoned starter

7.      Bold Predictions

a.       94-68

b.    No Trades!

Podcast Playlist:

"Everyday People" - Sly & the Family Stone

"No Light, No Light" - Florence + the Machine

Nick & Hayden's 2014 MLB Preview: 10. Atlanta Braves

This is by no means meant to be a bashing of Evan Gattis, but this is
A) why Gattis should be catching pitches and
B) visually representative of how I feel about the Atlanta Braves in the worst case scenario in 2014.

by Hayden Hughes
3/11/12




Following a horrendous 2013 from B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla, the bad looks worse now for the 2014 Atlanta Braves as starters Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy have apparent serious injuries, while Mike Minor is also experiencing some soreness in his shoulder. This is important because the question remains: How reliable is Freddy Garcia? What team hasn't signed this guy to a one-year contract that proved to be valuable comes season's end?

Yeah. One paragraph into the Braves' preview and I've already mentioned Freddy Garcia. Translation: This is a really good team where A LOT can go wrong. Like, Titanic wrong.

Gee, you know...come to think of it, a veteran starter like Tim Hudson (who is now a Giant) would be a great benefit to a team with this type of fragility.

Fragility seems to be a good word for this Atlanta Braves team, as consistency in shortstop Andrelton Simmons and first baseman Freddie Freeman are great, but that's where it stops. Catcher Evan Gattis proved himself to be as aggressive and exciting as they come, but was often out of the lineup due to injury. Dan Uggla and B.J. Upton had historically horrible years in 2013, even resulting in, not only the benching of, but the discussion of a demotion for Upton. Meanwhile, B.J.'s brother, new left fielder Justin Upton had a great April then an awful May and June - only to turn it around in July and August. Justin finished September hitting .260, which is about where the 26-year-old will be throughout his iffy-est season.

Then there's third baseman Chris Johnson, who is just kind of...there.

Then you add in the pitching problems and come to grips with the reality that outside of Garcia, the Braves will most likely see significant innings being pitched by prospects David Hale, Cody Martin, and maybe even J.R. Graham, the latter didn't pitch much in 2013 due to injury.

I could see a scenario where Uggla is in a different uniform (with checks still signed by the Braves), the Upton brothers are split up, and perhaps their top offensive prospect, catcher Christian Bethancourt is traded for pitching.

Ervin Santana is currently representing himself.
"Who's Frank Wren and why is he blowing up my cell phone?"

If the St. Louis Cardinals are the poster children for consistency, the Atlanta Braves are the poster children for fragility.


1. Last Season and Offseason
      a. 96-66 – Lost to LAD in NLDS
      b. Traded LHP Sean Gilmartin to MIN for C Ryan Doumit
      c. Signed Gavin Floyd (TJ Surgery - 5/8/13)

2. Lineup/Rotation
Lineup:
      1. Jason Heyward RF
      2. Justin Upton LF
      3. Freddie Freeman 1B
      4. Evan Gattis C
      5. Chris Johnson 3B
      6. Andrelton Simmons SS
      7. Dan Uggla 2B
      8. B.J. Upton CF
Rotation:
      1. Mike Minor
      2. Kris Medlen
      3. Julio Teheran
      4. Brandon Beachy
      5. Alex Wood

3. Favorite/Least Favorite
      a. Nick's Favorite – Extensions
      b. Hayden's Favorite – Simmons
      c. Nick's Least Favorite – No Major League SP in offseason
      d. Hayden's Least Favorite – 8-9 Hitters

4. Impact Player
      a. Justin Upton
               i. 2013 in wins: .324/.416/.597
              ii. 2013 in losses: .175/.261/.272
             iii. Better At-bats
                     1. When down in count, is no good.
                              a. Obvious, but really bad numbers
             iv. Adam Jones comp. for a poor man
              v. Needs a breakout season

5. Impact Prospect
      a. Imagine a world where Upton is again benched, Heyward moves to CF, J. Upton to RF, Gattis to LF
      b. Enter: Christian Bethancourt
               i. Great defensively; Should be ready

6. Midseason Status
      a. Trying their best to keep up with WSH b/c WC spot is not an option with Central Div.
      b. Offering Uggla for a bag of Official minor league baseballs

7. Bold Predictions
      a. 90-72
      b. Trade Dan Uggla and $19.5M (75% remaining) to NYY for RHP David Phelps
      c. Trade C Christian Bethancourt to AZ for RHP Randall Delgado

Gattis might be the most interesting and fun player in Major League Baseball.
Oh...for the fans' amusement, that is.

Podcast Playlist:
"Bullets" - Augustana
"Girl's Not Grey" - AFI