Nick and Hayden's 2014 MLB Preview: 6. Detroit Tigers

6. Detroit Tigers
by Nick Opich4/2/2014

To really examine the make up of the 2014 Detroit Tigers, you have to look back at the circumstances that brought them to this point. After a disappointing ass whooping at the hands of the Texas Rangers in the 2011 ALCS, owner Mike Illitch and General Manager Dave Dombrowski knew they had a good team and were content to begin 2012 with relatively the same team. Then Victor Martinez tore his ACL during an offseason workout, the club panicked and signed slugging first baseman Prince Fielder to a 9-year, $214M contract. All was right in the world.

The Tigers were now easy favorites in 2012 to reach and win the coveted World Series. Although they didn’t dominate during the regular season, they reached the World Series and were matched up against the San Francisco Giants and were quickly swept, giving Detroit another embarrassing showing in the playoffs and their second World Series defeat of the decade.

In 2013, the Tigers were once again the odds-on favorite to win the championship. With Martinez returning the lineup, Detroit had arguably the most imposing middle of the order in the game. Add on the fact that they had a rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister, and Rick Porcello and it was assumed by many that this team was the best in baseball. But you know what they say about when you assume something…

Detroit won the division by one game over the upstart Cleveland Indians and limped into the playoffs after being no-hit in the final game of the regular season. They were nearly knocked out by Oakland in the ALDS until Jhonny Peralta (fresh off his return from a PED suspension) hit a series changing double. They moved onto the next round against Boston and lost in six games to the Red Sox.

This will never be forgotten

It was clear that the dynamic of this team needed to change and you would be hard pressed to find any team that changed their make up more this offseason than the Detroit Tigers.

First, Manager Jim Leyland retired and was replaced by the younger and more analytically-inclined Brad Ausmus - a move many Tigers fans applauded. Then Prince Fielder and $30M was traded to Texas in exchange for 2B Ian Kinsler. Miguel Cabrera was to move back to first base and hot shot rookie Nick Castellanos was going to be brought up to play third. Another solid move by the savvy, Dombrowski.

Then things got weird… 

First, reliever Jose Veras, who was acquired at the trade deadline from Houston for young OF prospect Danry Vasquez, was cut because Detroit didn’t want to pay his $4M salary for 2014. An odd move considering the weakness of the Tigers bullpen but he wasn’t as reliable as many expected and so maybe this was the right move.

Then, on December 2^nd, 2013, a day that will live in infamy, The Tigers traded Doug Fister to the Washington Nationals for Double-A pitcher Robbie Ray, left-handed reliever (and homophobe) Ian Krol, and utility man Steve Lombardozzi. This sent shockwaves across Detroit and the rest of Major League Baseball. Did Dombrowski really trade a top-10 pitcher for a mid-tier prospect and spare parts? Isn’t this team set up to win now? There’s got to be something else going back to Detroit, right?

Yes, he did. Yes, the team wants to win now. No, they did not receive anything else from this trade.

Later that week, Detroit signed closer Joe Nathan but hardly anyone was excited. The damage had already been done.

They later signed OF Rajai Davis instead of the bigger name on the market Shin-Soo Choo and RHP Joba Chamberlain to a one year deal worth $6M bringing up many questions about why they cut Veras.

Who's really making these decisions?

Despite these strange moves, entering Spring Training, there was still plenty of optimism for Detroit.

Then, only a couple weeks before the season was to begin, it is reported that defensive whiz Jose Iglesias will likely miss the season with two fractured shins. A few days later, flame throwing reliever Bruce Rondon goes down with a torn UCL and it is announced that he will miss the season after receiving Tommy John surgery.

Tiger fans just wanted the season to begin before anything else weird and horrific could happen.

To replace Iglesias the Tigers acquired a platoon of Andrew Romine and Alex Gonzalez. One of the trades included sending Lombardozzi to Baltimore, making the Fister deal look even more dismal.

Finally the season has begun for Detroit and the outlook is still optimistic. Castellanos looked great this spring and Ausmus has shown so far that he is going to employ a more analytically inclined philosophy than that of the somewhat stubborn Leyland.

This team is in your hands now Brad

Objectively looking at this team, they have an array of players who are experienced and know how to win. In 2014, the Tigers could win anywhere from 88-95+ games and at the very least, run away with the AL Central crown.  

1. Last Season and Offseason
      a. 93-69 (Lost in ALCS to BOS)
      b. Signed Joe Nathan, Rajai Davis, Joba Chamberlain
      c. Traded Jose Alvarez to LAA for SS Andrew Romine
      d. Traded Doug Fister to WAS for LHP Ian Krohl, 2B Steve Lombardozzi
      e. Then trading Lombardozzi to BAL for SS Alex Gonzalez
       f. Traded Prince Fielder and cash to TEX for 2B Ian Kinsler

2. Lineup/Rotation
Lineup:
      1. Ian Kinsler 2B
      2. Torii Hunter RF
      3. Miguel Cabrera 1B
      4. Victor Martinez DH
      5. Austin Jackson CF
      6. Alex Avila C
      7. Nick Castellanos 3B
      8. Alex Gonzalez SS
      9. Rajai Davis LF
Rotation:
      1. Justin Verlander
      2. Max Scherzer
      3. Anibal Sanchez
      4. Rick Porcello
      5. Drew Smyly

3. Favorite/Least Favorite
      a. Nick's Favorite– Brad Ausmus
      b. Hayden's Favorite– Verlander’s conservation. Saves himself and his velocity.
      c. Nick's Least Favorite – Waste of roster spots
      d. Hayden's Least Favorite – Cabrera’s inevitable weight gain; Fister trade; Farm system

4. Impact Player
      a. Ian Kinsler
               i. Career lows in walks – 2012 & 2013 (12% to 8% drop)
              ii. Slugged .511 in Arlington; .399 everywhere else
             iii. Has hit .200 in Comerica
             iv. Age 29: Isolated power of .223; Age 31: I.P. of .136 (last 3 years: .223,.166,.136)
              v. But Michael Young was a better player from 32-34 than 29-31
      b. Rick Porcello
               i. Reaching 200+ innings – never done
              ii. Must be elite
             iii. Can he be Fister reincarnated?

5. Impact Prospect
      a. Nick Castellanos
               i. Oppo-field power
              ii. One of best pure hitters among prospects
             iii. Low expectations outside of hitting

6. Midseason Status
      a. Contending as usual for first in AL Central
      b. SS or LF as biggest hole?

7. Bold Predictions
      a. 93-69
      b. No significant trade
      c. Castellanos: AL ROY


Podcast Playlist:
"Are You on Your Way" - Middle Class Rut
"Trampled Underfoot" - Led Zeppelin