Should the D-Backs Think Long-Term with One of Their Own?

by Hayden Hughes

1/15/14

On Tuesday the Diamondbacks had four players file for salary arbitration: Relief pitchers Josh Collmenter, Joe Thatcher, newly acquired Mark Trumbo, and right fielder Gerardo Parra.

I’ll cover my bases (Hey, that’s a bad baseball pun for a baseball blog!) by prefacing that the Diamondbacks would most likely want to avoid arbitration with all four of these players, but in case they don’t, the following could happen and I think one player needs more than a one year settlement.

Presumably the Diamondbacks will let the process play out for Trumbo, as signing him to an extension could be seen as premature without seeing him play out a season in Arizona. Oh yeah, and he has 3 years of arbitration eligibility left which was an appeal to the D-Backs in acquiring the slugger. Although, the Diamondbacks did sign Martin Prado to an extension before he ever had an at-bat in Chase Field, but those were different circumstances.

Thatcher, in his final year of eligibility, most likely will also go to arbitration, unless the Diamondbacks feel like committing to the lefty (who made $1.35 million last year), similarly to how they signed Matt Reynolds to a one year deal with a team option for 2015 this past October.

As far as Collmenter goes, he is in the same boat as Trumbo. The earliest he will be a free agent is 2017. Collmenter made $504,000 in 2013 and will most likely see a pay raise in some form or another.

Now for Gerardo Parra, the starting Right fielder for the Diamondbacks in 2014, who – while never being guaranteed a position in five seasons – has earned his way into the lineup and seems to finally be getting a well-deserved nod. Parra’s earliest free agency is in 2016, but the Diamondbacks would be wise to sign him to a long-term deal now. Let me repeat the most important stat with regard to Parra: He has never been promised a position, yet in FIVE seasons been arguably the most valuable Diamondback day in and day out. Parra’s most impressive stat is his consistency. As well, last September Jack Magruder of Fox Sports AZ reported that Parra and Brad Ziegler extensions were on the D-Backs “to-do” list.

In 2013, Parra made $2.35 million while setting career highs games played, hits, walks, doubles, and home runs, as well as winning his second Gold Glove. Since 2009, Parra has been in the Opening Day lineup for the Diamondbacks twice, but in those five seasons he has played 120 games or more in each.

Fans could easily recall their frustration by watching Parra in 2012 and 2011 in which he was picked off or caught stealing 10 and 9 times, respectively. So while he was a 4.0 dWAR (Defensive Wins Above Replacement)in 2013, his game lacks the base running savvy some fans may crave. Parra also has a tendency to finish poorly towards the end of seasons, seeing his OBP and BB/K decrease. But what Parra has done, that Jason Kubel, Eric Byrnes, Conor Jackson, Adam Eaton, and Chris Young couldn’t do, was hit the ball hard while hitting consistently. I remember drooling at the idea of a Justin Upton - Chris Young - Parra outfield. But with the acquisition of Kubel, who had a great 2012 campaign, Parra was the odd man out. But after Young was injured in 2012, Parra took the reins in center field.

Source: FanGraphs

Courtesy of FanGraph’s player page of Parra’s, the above spray chart of all batted balls. The below chart is Chris Young’s spray chart.

Source: FanGraphs

In comparing the two, Young’s chart has drastically fewer line drives (denoted by the red dots) and is also a pull hitter, almost detrimentally so. Parra’s chart shows a great ability to slap line drive to the opposite field. Young may have more pop in his swing, but Parra at least has some pop going the other way, something Young lacks. In fact, a flyball to the opposite field off Young’s bat only resulted in an extra base hit less than five times.

Why are we comparing Chris Young to Parra?

Because Young, I feel, was the outfielder in Parra’s way from 2009 – 2012 and there’s a discrepancy between the two that shouldn’t be overlooked: Money. Chris Young made $3.45 million when he was 26 in 2010, whereas Parra made $2.35 million this past year when he was 26. The question that Arizona should be concerned with is whether or not Parra will see a decrease in his game at age 27 or 28 that Young experienced and eventually led the D-Backs to trading him in last winter’s Heath Bell trade. If they have concerns that the numbers will drop, that’s one thing, but here’s why they shouldn’t be:

1.      Parra is seemingly never injured.

a.       Young had a difficult time in 2012 getting back on track after an injury.

2.      Parra brings an impact to his game in the form of his defense that Young never had.

3.      From the ages of 22-26, Parra has just been an overall better player.

a.       Young’s OBP ages 22-26: .316; Parra’s OBP ages 22-26: .330

b.      In that same age bracket, Parra double Young’s number of triples and Young only out-doubles Parra 136-124.

c.       Young struck out 596 times; Parra struck out 424

d.      On average, Young played in 11 fewer games a year.

4.      Parra has cost the D-Backs $3,683,500 over the span of his MLB career

a.       Young cost the D-Backs $11,386,000 from 2007-2011 (ages 23-27)

                                                              i.      Not to mention the $7 million the D-Backs paid him in 2012

                                                            ii.      And the half million dollars Arizona sent with Young to Oakland

Bottom line is, for Gerardo Parra and the Diamondbacks, if not now, when? Thus far, the Snakes have gotten an All-Star caliber player for relatively cheap, and in my opinion could continue to get him for, maybe not pennies on the dollar, but how about quarters on the dollar?

I’d like to see the Gold Glover receive a 4-5 year deal with the D-Backs for around $25-27 million. Take the Paul Goldschmidt contract: At $32.05 million, the Diamondbacks have an All-Star first baseman for the next five years with a team option for a sixth. The way that the money is allocated is back-loaded, but in a vacuum, the Diamondbacks are paying (at most) $46.55 million through 2019. That’s, again at most, $7.758 million dollars a year for Goldy.

With Parra, team or player options aside, a four year contract makes sense. The Diamondbacks are rewarding a player who is still young, but has the potential to have even better days ahead of him. And at a total of $25 million, the Diamondbacks would be paying Parra $6.25 million a year. Goldschmidt’s contract, without the team option costs the team about $6.4 million a year, so it really depends on how much the Diamondbacks value Parra.

Of course in arbitration, the Diamondbacks save money compared to my proposal, as his salary could be bumped up to somewhere around $3 – 3.75 million. But the Diamondbacks have a potential All-Star, who will finally get his chance to shine, full-time and every day, in 2014. I’m picturing a Diamondback’s team whose core players in 2014 – 2016 are Paul Goldschmidt, Martin Prado, Miguel Montero, and Mark Trumbo, all hitting behind, as well as driving in Gerardo Parra.