Nick & Hayden's 2014 MLB Preview: 17. San Francisco Giants

17. San Francisco Giants
by Nick Opich
2/27/2014

In 2013, the San Francisco Giants possessed an imposing rotation consisting of Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, and Barry Zito, a top 10 offense in terms of fWAR (Wins Above Replacement under Fangraphs formula), and one of the best players in the league in Buster Posey. They posted winning records against all NL West opponents: Dodgers (11-8), Diamondbacks (12-7), Padres (11-8), and Rockies (10-9). Despite this, the Giants were unable to even post a winning record for the season and tied the Padres for a putrid third place finish in the NL West.

How is this even possible?

For starters, injuries took their toll. They were without leadoff man and centerfielder Angel Pagan for 91 games last season due to problems with his hamstring. Ryan Vogelsong, who was hoping to build off his first two years with the club, missed nearly three months with a broken finger. In the second half of 2013, Posey hit only two homeruns and posted a paltry .643 OPS. A rash of other injuries nagged the rest of the club and along with other poor performances, the Giants struggling to find consistency throughout the 2013 campaign. 

It was very reminiscent of the Giants 2011 season when they were also defending a World Series championship and the club failed to make the postseason.

So what moves did the Giants do to improve upon their injury and consistency problems in 2013? They brought in players with more injury and consistency problems of course!

First, they overpaid right field incumbent Hunter Pence and signed him to a 5 year/ $90M extension. Pence rebounded nicely in 2013 after a miserable 2012 but he is not an elite player and should not be paid as such.  

Headlining San Francisco’s offseason acquisitions is veteran starter Tim Hudson. Hudson hasn’t pitched since last July 24^th when he suffered a gruesome ankle injury when trying to cover first base. 

"Ouch"

The Giants are giving the soon to be 39-year-old $23M over two years and banking on him being able to bounce back from his injury to be a key contributor in their rotation.

That shouldn't be a problem, right?

And in an effort to bring more offense to their lineup, San Francisco signed Mike Morse, known for his inconsistent offensive production and terrible defense, on as a platoon outfielder with Gregor Blanco.

Morse was posting underwhelming offensive numbers in Seattle before being traded at the end of August to the Orioles. Once in Baltimore, the outfielder played in only 12 games before his season ended due to a wrist injury.

The face of a $6M man

These puzzling moves beg the question, does the Giants front office understand why their team struggled last year?

The hope for the Giants this year is that Posey will rebound, Brandon Belt will continue to progress, and a slimmed down Pablo Sandoval will post solid offensive numbers in a contract year. It would also help if Blanco and shortstop Brandon Crawford could post replacement level seasons at the plate.

There are a lot of “ifs” coming into this season for San Francisco and if things fall into place like in 2010 and 2012 they could be a dangerous team. But after making no moves to really improve their club this offseason, it more than likely the Giants will be stuck in the middle of the pack once again.


1. Last Season and Offseason
      a. 76-86
      b. Traded with NYY for David Huff
      c. Signed Dontrelle Willis, Michael Morse, Tim Hudson

2. Lineup/Rotation
Lineup:
      1. Angel Pagan CF
      2. Marco Scutaro 2B
      3. Brandon Belt 1B
      4. Buster Posey C
      5. Hunter Pence RF
      6. Pablo Sandoval 3B
      7. Michael Morse/Gregor Blanco LF
      8. Brandon Crawford SS

Rotation:
      1. Matt Cain
      2. Madison Bumgarner
      3. Tim Lincecum
      4. Tim Hudson
      5. Ryan Vogelsong

3. Favorite/Least Favorite
      a. Nick’s Favorite – Stickin to their guns
      b. Hayden’s Favorite – Rotation and Sandoval in a contract yr
      c. Nick’s Least Favorite – No way they can compete
      d. Hayden’s Least Favorite – No speed: Sandoval, Morse, Posey, Belt = 4 Steals; No farm system at all

4. Impact Player
      a. Brandon Belt
              i. Emerged as power threat and first base – beat out Brett Pill!
             ii. Compares well to Freeman and his extension...potentially.

Freddie Freeman's 2013 Hit Spray Chart:

Source: FanGraphs

Brandon Belt's 2013 Hit Spray Chart:

Source: FanGraphs

5. Impact Prospect
      a. Almost nothing, maybe Kyle Crick :-(

6. Midseason Status
      a. Morse is benched; Gregor Blanco takes over a tears it up defensively
      b. Cain and Bumgarner are awesome

7. Bold Predictions
      a. 77-85
      b. Are willing to trade Pagan for almost nothing even after trade deadline
      c. Trade RHP Kyle Crick and SS Brandon Crawford to TOR for SS Jose Reyes and $33M
      d. No back up for Sandoval, must resign him - (Joaquin Arias, Tony Abreu, Nick Noonan, Hayden, Hayden’s                 dog) 



Podcast Playlist:
"Q.U.E.E.N." - Janelle Monae feat. Erykah Badu
"Team" - Lorde