The (Should-Be) Best Trade of 2014 (That Should Happen): Masterson to Arizona

by Hayden Hughes

2/27/14

The following trade proposal comes after learning two pieces of interesting information over the last 24 hours. Thanks to Nick Piecoro’s recent article, we now know that in the event that the D-backs trade one of their shortstops, they would desire “Maybe an outfielder, but probably more catching and Double-A, Triple-A type starter,” according to General Manager Kevin Towers.

I’m going to assume that “Double-A, Triple-A starter” is referring to a starting pitcher and the catcher he wants is an MLB-ready backup that can be on the 25-man roster. But we all know what the problem is with assuming.

By dealing a “shortstop” I think it’s only fair we consider all the shortstops – young and veteran – "tradable." That means Cliff Pennington, Didi Gregorius, Chris Owings, and Nick Ahmed – the latter being the only without any Major League experience. Piecoro feels that Owings is the favorite to earn the spot for now.

Also by indicating a catcher would be preferable in a trade means a couple things: the Diamondbacks may feel 19-year-old prospect Stryker Trahan is better suited as a corner outfielder – who is also two years from the Major Leagues at least, and that Tuffy Gosewisch and Henry Blanco are not favorable options for the Diamondbacks as backups to an already-wary Miguel Montero.

The second piece of news comes from the Cleveland Indians’ camp. Susan Petrone, beat writer for the Indians, hints (on Wildly Effective from Baseball Prospectus) that their ace Justin Masterson is a guy “not motivated by the dollar” and hints that an extension with Masterson, a welcomed idea by the Indians, might not materialize and the Tribe may be forced to deal Masterson. Further notable, Petrone had less-than-complimentary things to say about shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and his future with the Indians, citing that he seems to show “less heart than what is desirable.” We’ve seen this from players before, such as Hanley Ramirez, but Cabrera isn’t Ramirez and in the final year of a 3-year, $21.05M deal. The bad news for Cleveland is in this final year, Cabrera will make $10M.

Perhaps more so than his price tag, Cabrera is also expendable due to the quick emergence of the Indians’ 2011 first round draft pick, shortstop Francisco Lindor. At just age 19, Lindor had a slash line of .303/.380/.407 with an OBP of .787. While he has never played in Triple-A and now just 20 years old, Lindor could still be a viable option as the Indians’ shortstop of 2014, even if Mike Aviles takes the majority of the at-bats in April and May.

This should be most appealing to Indians fans because they witnessed Cabrera’s 2013 campaign which resulted in a slash line of .242/.299/.402. So for the Indians, the question is how badly they want to shed Cabrera’s inability to get on base – if at all – and how quickly do they want to bring up Lindor.

The Indians’ rotation, outside of Masterson, consists of Corey Kluber, young flame-thrower Danny Salazar, Zach McAllister, spot-starter Carlos Carrasco, veteran Non-Roster Invitees Shaun Marcum and Aaron Harang, and not to be forgotten, former D-back and 23-year-old Trevor Bauer. And the good news for Cleveland is all these guys are a year older and more mature. Okay, maybe for Marcum and Harang the calendar is their worst enemy, but you get my point. Surprisingly, at age 28, Masterson is the oldest of all starters on the team’s depth chart.

The Indians signed their 6’6” Righty to a 1-year, $9.76M deal to avoid his final year of Arbitration. Come season’s end, Masterson can walk in Free Agency. My guess is they won’t let him walk without some return via trade.

This is where my own logic overrules what little information I’ve gathered. Nick Peircoro and I had the following interaction regarding the D-backs surplus of starters:

@HC_Hughes I'd be surprised if they traded away a starting pitcher. Big part of the Arroyo signing was their lack of depth in that area.
— Nick Piecoro (@nickpiecoro) February 26, 2014

While Nick obviously knows more than I do, I can’t help but feel like between Patrick Corbin, Bronon Arroyo, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, Randall Delgado, Brandon McCarthy, and Zeke Spruill, the Snakes could afford to make a move with one of their MLB-ready starters.

Here are the options at an eyeball-test: Miley, Cahill, Delgado, Spruill.

Bronson Arroyo was just signed, so he’s not going anywhere. Corbin was one of the two players the Diamondbacks said they would not even discuss trading this past winter, along with Paul Goldschmidt. McCarthy’s $10M contract which expires would most likely only be dumped in the event that the Diamondbacks have dropped out of contention and some contender is desperate enough for the injury-prone righty.

Cahill is due for a bounce back year and has proven to be a solid second or third starter in a rotation, while Delgado has been relegated to the bullpen with the arrival of Arroyo because he is out of options. Wade Miley would be attractive to some teams as a lefty with two consecutive quality seasons and will be Arbitration-eligible in 2015 for the first time. Spruill only has 11.1 Major League innings since coming over to the desert in the Justin Upton-Martin Prado Blockbuster trade. Spruill has the upside of a three or four-guy in a big league rotation with his velocity topping out around 91 mph.

So by now, you’re most likely asking yourself why I bring up these two teams, as it’s apparent these two teams don’t make sense with Arizona having a surplus of shortstops and Cleveland having Lindor close, if not ready this year.

The third team involved in this deal needs help at shortstop (and they’ll most likely favor a younger, cheaper player than Cabrera so they’ll go with one of Arizona’s options), and they need a lot of help in their bullpen.

They are the New York Yankees.

Ultimately, Cleveland will end up trading the more valuable asset between Masterson and Cabrera, being Masterson. Cleveland will then let Cabrera go after his typical, not-good-but-not-bad 2014, and Lindor will be the guy manning shortstop in 2015.

Okay, here’s the dooise-of-a-trade.

The Yankees’ Side:

Didi Gregorius was off to a hot start for Arizona in 2013, but is now in jeopardy of being traded.

The Yankees receive bullpen help from Cleveland in lefty Nick Hagadone and from Arizona in Zeke Spruill. They also get their shortstop of the future in Didi Gregorius from Arizona. It’s only fitting that Gregorius take a year to learn from Derek Jeter (or sit and watch from Triple-A or the bench), as Kevin Towers deemed him the “next Derek Jeter” when Arizona traded for Gregorius. But here’s why Arizona is okay with dealing Gregorius after trading for him less than two years before: Chris Owings is better and they probably didn’t realize that. Gregorius brings a solid vacuum-of-a-glove to the Bronx and also possesses a tool that beats Cabrera outright: He walks. In 33 less games Gregorius walked 37 times, when Cabrera walked 35 times in 136 games. In those 136 games, Cabrera struck out 114 times, averaging 0.84 strikeouts a game. Gregorius averaged .63 strikeouts per game. Check the 2013 OBPs of each player: Cabrera had an OBP of .299, whereas Gregorius’ was .332.

We’ve discussed Spruill as a starter, and since New York has a solidified rotation, Spruill can serve as a long-relief bullpen arm as well as a spot starter. Nick Hagadone coming over from Cleveland serves a purpose that would greatly benefit New York: Hagadone instantly becomes the most valuable lefty in that bullpen. Veteran Matt Thornton comes over to New York as a bona fide LOOGY, but is 37 years old. Making $7M over the next two years, one has to assume Thornton’s career ends after 2015. Hagadone, currently the third left-handed option in Clevelan after Josh Outman and Marc Rzepczynski, is Arbitration-eligible in 2015 and is nine years younger than Thornton. Hagadone, not merely a LOOGY, has held lefties to a .211 AVG in his career, while righties only hit .231. Some more time out of the ‘pen and hopefully an improvement of control could give New York a lefty reliever who can go an entire inning or two. Again, Hagadone is the third most valuable lefty in Cleveland’s organization. In New York, he would be potentially the most valuable.

The Diamondbacks’ Side:

Justin Masterson has been the ace of the Indians, whether by title or not, since 2011.

First, the bad news. On top of Spruill, the Diamondbacks are going to have to give up two starters and they would both be going to Cleveland. First is lefty Wade Miley. Miley would be the lone lefty in Cleveland and would be the only pitcher in that rotation that pitched 200 innings in 2013. He also pitched 194.2 innings in 2012. That’s a hit for the Diamondbacks. Looking at the numbers, Miley compares easily to somewhere between fellow lefties Matt Moore in Tampa Bay and Mike Minor of Atlanta. And Miley has pitched more innings than both Moore and Minor. With a cut down on walks, Miley could top out as a poor-man’s Tom Glavine. Again, Miley’s control is the only tool he needs significant work on. The Diamondbacks would also have the option to give up either Trevor Cahill or Randall Delgado. Cahill is due $7.7M in 2014 and $12M in 2015, with a 2016 buyout of $300,000 or a salary of $13M. Delgado would bring upside to Cleveland, but depending on how high they are on Cahill, Delgado might be too inexperienced and too similar to a younger Zach McAllister, with more strikeout stuff. Cahill would replace the veteran presence left by Masterson’s departure, but at a cheaper price in 2014. Cahill has thrown over 200 innings in 2012 and 2011, and threw 196.2 innings in 2010. Besides a 2013, where Cahill spent time on the DL, he has always started at least 30 games every year he’s been in the league.

The Diamondbacks also give up Didi Gregorius who manned shortstop for over 100 games for them in 2013, in favor of Chris Owings and Cliff Pennington – a transition that might result in some growing pains.

Giving up both of Spruill and one of Delgado or Cahill justifies the return Arizona gets in this deal. Their new ace Justin Masterson would most likely come with a contract extension agreed upon – or at least one would hope with giving up your starting shortstop and two Major League starters and Spruill, a top prospect in their organization. But ultimately, moving all these pieces leads to the potential for Archie Bradley’s arrival in 2014. Starting the year with a rotation of Masterson, Corbin, Arroyo, McCarthy, and Delgado or Cahill definitely beats the current rotation of Corbin, Arroyo, Cahill, Miley, McCarthy, and Cahill. Losing Miley hurts, but also clears the path for Bradley to make his debut once a starter goes down with an injury.

Arizona also receives some good prospects that are currently blocked on their current rosters that addresses all of Towers’ desires in the aforementioned quote. First, a backup catcher behind Montero. The Yankees have locked up Brian McCann for the long term, so Gary Sanchez’s name should absolutely be in this trade. But the good news for Arizona is, even if New York is unwilling to part with its top prospect, they have another catching prospect who is closer to being ready for the big leagues in JR Murphy. Sanchez is a great poor defensive catcher with a solid arm – an odd combination. But Sanchez does hit well and get on base at a good clip. JR Murphy, while he doesn’t have the notoriety that Sanchez does, hit just as well in the minors in 2013, got some run at third base, and is a year older than Sanchez at 22 years old. Murphy did struggle in 16 games at the big leagues in 2013, but either catcher would be improvements over current D-back catchers beside Montero.

The rest of Arizona’s return from the Yankees also has options that I believe Arizona would have leverage in negotiating. Towers wants an outfielder, so the Yankees should have to give up either Slade Heathcott or Tyler Austin. Neither has MLB experience, and Heathcott has had personal struggles. But after locking up Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury for the next five and seven years, respectively, along with Carlos Beltran and Ichiro Suzuki’s places on the roster, the Yankees would definitely part with one if not both outfield prospects. My bet is whichever catcher the Diamondbacks receive will correlate positively to what outfielder they take; if they take Sanchez, they’ll receive Heathcott and if they take Murphy, Arizona will receive Murphy.

And finally, to address the issue of a Double-A or Triple-A starter, Arizona should look to Cleveland for their #6 prospect, Cody Anderson. With an ETA of 2015, Anderson put up a 2.65 ERA in 2013 in 136.0 innings with 122 strikeouts and 40 walks. His WHIP was 1.18. Anderson is blocked on a team with a crowded rotation and could prove to be the best part of this acquisition for all teams.

The Indians’ Side:

Miley has been one of the most reliable assets the Diamondbacks have.

This will be rather straight forward. Losing Justin Masterson would be a difficult swallow for the team and fan base, but this seems to be a guy who seems intent on avoiding a long-term extension with Cleveland, who doesn’t usually dole out big-money contract extensions anyways (Where is Ubaldo Jimenez now? Not Cleveland). The team sheds Masterson before he walks and receives the stability of Wade Miley and his three years of remaining club control, and another starter from Arizona. Their bullpen is solid and will be fine with the loss of Nick Hagadone to New York as well. It would probably be best for the Indians to take on Randall Delgado, even though he has no more options, although just as strong of a case could be made for Trevor Cahill, whose best seasons were in the American League with Oakland. It most likely would come down to money and how highly they view Delgado as a fifth starter.

So to recap:

Arizona receives:	Cleveland receives:	New York receives:
Justin Masterson (CLE)	Wade Miley (AZ)	Didi Gregorius (AZ)
Cody Anderson (CLE)	Trevor Cahill or Randall Delgado (AZ)	Nick Hagadone (CLE)
Slade Heathcott or Tyler Austin (NYY)		Zeke Spruill (AZ)
JR Murphy or Gary Sanchez (NYY)