Monday, February 24, 2014

Nick & Hayden's 2014 MLB Preview: 19. Cincinnati Reds

Joey Votto. Just the way Seth MacFarlane visualized him.
19. Cincinnati Reds
by Hayden Hughes
2/24/14





With Ryan Ludwick starting every day in left field, one might assume that a professional baseball team would be in a state of complete instability and rebuilding. Or at least in some form of mid-life panic or crisis. One would be wrong – this isn’t the case for the 2014 Cincinnati Reds.

While they lost in the Wild Card game to division foes, the Pittsburgh Pirates and their destined run of 2013, the Reds only lost out on Bronson Arroyo who would be fifth at best in 2014’s rotation. While Arroyo is the definition of stability, check this out – their lineup consists of:
  •  9 All-Star appearances
  •  6 Silver Slugger Awards
  • 1 MVP
  • 9 MVP-consideration-seasons

Not all that impressive until you realize that that information stems from only 3 players: Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce, A.K.A. their 3 – 5 hitters.

Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends with regard to the lineup card. A team seemingly in love with super-utility guys such as Todd Frazier, Skip Schumaker, Jack Hannahan, and Ramon Santiago, shouldn’t be expected to beat out the likes of St. Louis and even a Pittsburgh team that for the most part stood pat this offseason.

But there is a chance they win. A Rookie of the Year-caliber season from assumed leadoff guy Billy Hamilton and a resurrection of the 2012 Todd Frazier, along with the expected stability of  a rotation including a now-healthy Johnny Cueto, newly-super-rich Homer Bailey, the ever-dominant Mat Latos, and an effective Mike Leake, the Reds could be really freakin’ good.

But a renaissance of the “Big Red Machine” will only come assuming Leake doesn’t revert to his 2012-self, that Cueto doesn’t land on the DL three times like he did in 2013, and that the Votto-Phillips-Bruce trio aren’t all healthy and as typically dominant as we’ve come to expect. And that’s a lot of assuming.

Heck – that’s assuming Brandon Phillips is still there at all come season’s end!

So there’s something’s to question here: Why extend Bailey when prior he was trade-bait? Why not trade a disgruntled Brandon Phillips? Why not trade Brandon Phillips for anyone to play in left instead of Ludwick? Are they really making a run for it with a left-sided infield of Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier?

A .500 season would be a huge letdown after the 90-72 season they just had, and fans really shouldn't expect that bad of a season. But one can't help but wonder if this team's window has closed, especially with a disgruntled Phillips and a lineup that consists of the less-than-flashy names I mentioned prior.

Another transition that might materialize into some growing pains that I have failed to mention: new manager Bryan Price. Being the pitching coach since 2010 means he is no stranger to the organization, but he has never filled out a lineup card, so we'll have to see where he intends to bat Phillips, how much time will Hamilton be allotted to get acclimated to the big leagues, and how confident they are in the names at the bottom-half of the lineup.

If Dusty Baker got fired after a 90-win season, where's the standard set for a first-time manager?

Yes, I know there was some drama in Baker's dismissal, but still.

They certainly have an uphill battle on their hands. Good luck Reds! 


This is Votto's reaction to just losing a game against the Brewers.
Can you imagine his reaction when he see the standings
and the Brewers are actually above the Reds?
*2014 - There will be tears*


1. Last Season and Offseason
      a. 90-72 (Lost to PIT in WC game)
      b. Signed Jeff Francis, Ramon Santiago, Chein-Ming Wang, Skip Schumaker, Brayan Pena, Chris Nelson
      c. Traded Ryan Hannigan to TB; AZ sent David Holmberg to CIN

2. Line Up/Rotation
Lineup:
      1. Billy Hamilton CF
      2. Zack Cozart SS
      3. Joey Votto 1B
      4. Brandon Phillips 2B
      5. Jay Bruce RF
      6. Ryan Ludwick LF
      7. Todd Frazier 3B
      8. Devin Mascoraco C

Rotation:
      1. Mat Latos
      2. Johnny Cueto
      3. Homer Bailey
      4. Mike Leake
      5. Tony Cingrani

3. Favorite/Least Favorite
      a. Hayden's Favorite – Billy Hamilton; Dealt Hannigan
      b. Nick's Favorite – Mike Leake, due for a big season
      c. Hayden's Least Favorite – Didn’t deal Bailey, Phillips; Ludwick still in LF 
      d. Nick's Least Favorite – Big losses with no replacements from last season

4. Impact Player
      a. Brandon Phillips
                i. Plays well when disgruntled
               ii. Ready to be moved
              iii. Gold Glove winner
              iv. OBP must quit decreasing
               v. 18 home runs last 4 straight seasons

5. Impact Prospect
      a. Billy Hamilton
                i. Replacing Shin-Soo Choo
               ii. Choo 2013 OBP: .423
              iii. Hamilton 2013 OBP: .308
              iv. Strikes out too much

6. Midseason Status
      a. Still competitive, but not as good as 2013.
      b. Must deal Phillips or a starter for package

7. Bold Predictions
      a. A generous 81-81
      b. Will gut their roster at the midseason and go full rebuild
      c. Trade RHP Mat Latos to LAD for $9M, RHP Chad Billingsley, OF Joc Pederson, SS Dee Gordon, and                     RHP Zach Lee
      d. Trade Brandon Phillips to NYY for OF Mason Williams, RHP David Phelps, and IF Eduardo Nunez
      e. Ludwick loses job
       f. Disappointing 2014


Or perhaps Votto was upset with Carlos Gomez's spectacular catch.
Which begs the question - What was Votto pointing at?
Requesting a re-do on his at-bat?



Podcast Playlist:
"Everyday People" - Sly & the Family Stone
"Another One Bites the Dust" - Queen

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